CYRIL Y.K. CHEN
cyrilchen
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Name: CHEN
Country: China
Metro: Hong Kong
Gender: Male


Interests: Foreign exchange analysis; stock analysis; macroeconomic analysis; history research.
Expertise: Writing, accounting, economic and business analysis, foreign exchange forecasting and analysis
Industry: Auditing


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Member Since: 6/7/2005

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Monday, November 09, 2009

910.HK

对于你的910.HK投资,我疏不苟同,反而觉得你这次比较危险,望见好就收。

原因如下:

1)      The financial statement tells me that the business performance of this company is bad. Fluctuations are so significant. What's more, it is difficult and subject to assess the value to agriculture assets, therefore, my opinion is opposite to yours.

2)      It's better not long-term hold this kind of shares, because it is very speculative instead of being investment-oriented. The sudden jump of its share price is due to the announcement of government policy, without the sound fundamental, the stock price won't be kept longer at such level.

3)      I never abandon myself in technical analysis, when thinking of a stock, it is better to consider it from three aspects:

a)      Market element

b)      Fundamental element, and

c)       Technical element.

At this time, it seems that you focus too much on market element and technical element, but ignoring the fundamental element. And to my humble experience, without fundamental support, the sharp increase in share price is just a momentum, not a trend.

4)      It is dangerous for you to judge a trend based on momentum movement, that's why I think it is better to withdraw your money from this risky speculation.

Regards,

Cyril Chen

p.s. You can take 904.HK as reference.


Tuesday, August 18, 2009

ACCA

I passed all required exams of ACCA - The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants. Now I became one of ACCA candidates.

 


Thursday, July 30, 2009

Consideration

葛彦灏所指得股票近日都是领涨领跌的,所谓大盘股,蓝筹股,指数成份股,成交活跃,名列电视评论之首,我也觉得资源股是非常好的投机target,比如之前的中海油,江西铜,中国铝业,神华,etc。皆是行业领头羊。
 
但是问题在于,我近日重整了我的投资/机思路,我之前过于专注于投资上,但是我的心志却在投机上,一天我读了一本书《港股指南》,列了1000多家香港上市公司的经营数据,然后我自己抽选了120只股票,花了1个星期逐一研究,然后结合市场的情绪,RSI,以及一些技术分析的手段,选了6个股票组成portfolio。
 
我曾经非指数股不买,比如我投资过中国银行,中海油,Esprit, ChinaMobile,等等,但是我觉得这样最多只能和大市打个平手,所以我考虑了一段时间,觉得还是得另辟蹊径,勇于尝试一些我没有涉足过的领域,比如电子股,农业股,地产类,水泥类,等等,都是我过去理都不会理的股票,但是如果看看3个月的表现,却发现他们抛离了大市不知多少percentage。
 
我曾经留意过中国航空,想买,但觉得价格高了,等
我也曾经考虑过江西铜,去年十月就开始留意,但是却由于我幼稚,错过了这支5倍股。
 
我现在主要的投资/机target是小盘股,一般市值在2亿到50亿之间,我觉得这种股票身轻如燕,可以轻骑突围,而且是私募基金或是国外基金理想的target,当然,这只是我个人的想法,尚需时间去exam my concept。
 
金融类股,以及大盘股,属于稳健的投资范畴,但是投机者要做的是击败大市,我个人的看法和兄的看法有分歧:
 
电子板块,我觉得是可以打赢大市的,尤其是那些生产电子原件的公司,这一点,我曾经和你说过。
 
至于农业/绿色食品类,我觉得这种股票往往出在睡眠阶段,总是个人一种不为大市所动的感觉,所以我买的是这种股票猛醒的一刻。
 
至于水泥股,我觉得我可能是看错了。
 
至于发电类股,我觉得电力企业处于低谷,尚没有走楚阴影,因为国家对于电价的控制,以及发电厂商对于煤价的谈判失利,均是坏消息。但问题在于,许多出色的电力企业,在逆境中千方百计去重整自己的上游,要么发展风电,要么发展水电,这些都是很好的举措,指得买;
 
同时,我对于电子音乐类股票,电信类股票仍然十分看好。比如有个A8电子音乐公司,以及中移动。
 
最后,我对航运股超级看好。比如香港的太平洋航运2343.HK,之前想买的,但是犹豫之见,股价就飙升了,这固然令我不悦,但是股价是浮动的,我相信它会回到我comfortable的地方。
 
同时,金属类股票,受国际commodity price影响太大,我觉得中期这种commodity price会有一次调整,故而,我看不清2个月后这类股票的股价会如何表现。


Monday, July 13, 2009

I think a new era would begin!


Friday, July 03, 2009

What I am thinking of is quite complex these days. The discussion with one colleague during Tuesday lunch suddenly inspired me of something. I got a hint to do something, though a little bit crazy, but I am determined to do so because I want to create a bright future.

As for stock market in Hong Kong, well, millions of words have been published that the stock market would crash to 16000, or even lower. Maybe it would happen one day, however, as for many listed companies, their stock prices have already been returned to the level when Hang Seng Index was around 16000, like 1043.HK, like 883.HK, and they are good companies and their stocks are worth of investing. That's why should I distinguish between the index and individual stock? Well, I admit there is a close correlation coefficient between single stock and the entire stock market, however, I still believe good company could beat the market.

And this kind of thought is very conservative, and many aggressive men are purchasing derivative to create forturn from the volatility. Actually, I don't like to do so, and so far, I am only fond of buying low and selling high equities. Maybe I am good at this area:)



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